Weekly oil data from the US Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum
Institute should show a build of about 1.8 million barrels in US commercial crude stocks for the
reporting week ended Friday, analysts polled by Platts said Monday.
API is scheduled to release its weekly data at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday. EIA's weekly
oil statistics will be released at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday. The ongoing movement
of crude stocks out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into commercial inventories will keep the
stock-building trend intact. Contributing to the stock build will be a decline in refinery utilization
rates. Analysts expect refinery utilization to decrease 0.8 percentage points to 88.5%, based on
EIA numbers for the previous week. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline 1.2 million barrels.
With refiners switching to a higher yield for distillates over the past several reports and a
continued low level of imports, inventories are expected to drop. Inventories of middle distillates
are expected by analysts to build 1.2 million barrels.
High output at a time of year when demand is low should cause distillate inventories to build.
Stock-building has been modest, but there is still another two months before demand should
start to ramp up.
The European Commission has published in the Official Journal amendments to the EU
Regulation concerning the export and import of dangerous chemicals to take into account recent
changes in plant protection, biocidal and REACH legislation.
The update adds the pesticide substances ethalfluralin, indolylacetic acid, thiobencarb,
guazatine and 1,3-dichloropropene to the list of chemicals included in the Rotterdam
Convention's Prior Informed Consent (PIC) procedure and removes the substance haloxyfop-P
from the list.
These changes will apply from 1 October 2011.
Turkey's domestic producer Petkim is currently offering LDPE and homo-PP at prices close to par
after the company’s PP prices had traded with a large premium above LDPE from late June to
mid-August.
The company’s LDPE prices had traded with a premium above its PP prices for the entirety of
2010 as well as the first few months of 2011, until PP prices surpassed the LDPE level. Petkim's
LDPE film traded at a premium against the company’s homo-PP for the entirety of 2010, with
size of the premium fluctuating between $50-215/ton. This trend continued in January and
February of 2011, with Petkim’s LDPE prices maintaining a premium of around $100-160/ton
over the company’s PP prices. The premium between LDPE and homo-PP fell below $100/ton
at the start of March and homo-PP prices had gained a small premium over LDPE by the end of
the month. Homo-PP prices maintained a thin premium of $10-35/ton for the next three months
before the premium on Petkim’s homo-PP prices expanded to around $40-65/ton from the
start of July until the middle of August before LDPE prices regained some of their lost ground
against homo-PP.
The two products have been trading close to par for the past month. The producer lowered its
prices for both LDPE and homo-PP by $40/ton this week, keeping the two products roughly at
par for another week.
LONDON-Copolymer polypropylene (PP) prices in eastern and western regions of Africa have
fallen by an average of 6-7% in October, mainly because of an influx of low-priced South Korean
offers, industry sources said on Wednesday.
South Korea has been the biggest source of relatively cheap copolymer PP grade in October,
according to regular distributors of Middle East and Asian imports into Africa. The increase in
imports has mostly been in eastern and western Africa as the Asian producers have strong
distribution channels in both regions. This is supported by fresh data published by the Korea
International Trade Association (KITA), which show that South Korean exports of PP increased
by 33.14% year on year to 74,726 tonnes in September. Although precise volumes into Africa
remain hard to gauge, supply levels from South Korea have traditionally moved in line with price
movements in the Asian producers’ key buyer market of China.
The producers are said to have increased their supply into Africa following the persistently
pessimistic buying sentiment in China. Offers from the country stand at $1,500/tonne
(€1,080/tonne) CFR (cost and freight) eastern and western Africa, according to industry
sources. In contrast, copolymer PP import prices from Middle East producers into northern Africa
– a region where South Korean imports are relatively low and are at higher levels of
$1,560/tonne - have fallen only by around 4%.
Despite the reductions in price offers, there is slow uptake of the product. African buyers said
they are waiting to see whether prices in China would continue to fall, in which case offers from
Asian producers are likely to decrease again. Many industry sources said they were bemused at
the lower South Korean offers into the African spot market over the last few weeks, with some
saying the gap between import offers into Chinese and African markets are closing
“abnormally”. "If I were Samsung, I would try to sell into China, and not sell it to Africa by
cutting down on netback," said a PP distributor into western Africa. “Why sell to Nigeria when
the freight is $110-120. It is only $40 to China,” the source added. A PP producer based in the
Middle East said: "[It is a case of] supply exceeding demand. Koreans are offering even in Egypt
at very competitive prices, putting pressure. I can't explain that, the market is under pressure,
and suppliers are under pressure just to release the inventory."
The lower South Korean offers have also contributed to a narrowing gap between the normally
less expensive homopolymer raffia PP grade and copolymer PP grade. The lower import offers
are also supported by a sharp reduction in feedstock propylene prices in Asia. Spot propylene
prices declined by $60-90/tonne to stand at $1,270-1,320/tonne FOB (free on board) Korea the
week ending 21 October, according to ICIS. ($1 = €0.72)
The EPS Building energy efficiency and Safety Fireproofing Seminar will be held on December 2,
2011 in Beijing. It is aimed at improving the exchange and communication among the
government, industry administration and enterprises. Also the seminar will talk about the
development and technology application of the energy saving material EPS at home and
abroad.
The main content of the seminar:
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Petrochemicals of US-origin bound for the Far East Asia are expected to lose some of their price competitiveness as freight rates from US have surged $20/mt or 23% month- on-month for 5,000-12,000 mt from the US Gulf Coast to Far East Asia to stand at $103- 110/mt on Friday.
According to a shipping report, freight rates for USGC to Far East Asia route jumped to about $110/mt for 5,000 mt basis cargoes by the end of the week, up $20/mt or 22% from $90/mt quoted for week ending November 11. "Demand for chemical freight is huge in USG, and there is hardly any ship available at the moment," a ship broker based in Singapore said. Tonnage is extremely tight for December even going into January. Most producers were heard to be actively looking for freight as they want to move their cargo out before December 31.
Due to the tight amount of tonnage, rates are expected to remain firm well into January, according to market sources. Meanwhile, market sources expect there will be a surplus of ships at end January to February, which may drag freight rates from Far East Asia down. |